話題

上昌広「緊急事態宣言は全く不要だった。東京の感染は2~3月にピークを迎えていた可能性がある」

投稿日:

1: Toy Soldiers ★ 2020/05/27(水) 10:20:33.70 ID:615SN4gF9
 より手厳しい指摘をする専門家もいる。「緊急事態宣言は全く不要だった可能性がある」と話すのは、医療ガバナンス研究所理事長で内科医の上昌広医師だ。

「東京の超過死亡数を見ると、感染は2~3月にピークを迎えていた可能性があります」

 超過死亡とは、インフルエンザなどの感染症による死者数を推計するための数値だ。感染が流行していない時期の死者数をベースラインとし、流行時の死者数と比較することで感染症による死者を推計する。
東京都の数値を見ると、今年はインフルエンザの流行が弱かったのに、2~3月にインフルエンザ大流行時並みの超過死亡が発生している。上医師はこれを、「新型コロナによる隠れた死亡としか考えられない」と指摘する。

「超過死亡でコロナによる実際の死者を推計するのは世界のスタンダードになっています。日本では一部の地域しかこの超過死亡数が明らかになっていませんが、これを詳細に検討する必要があります」

 また、緊急事態の名のもとに一律の行動自粛を求めたのも不合理だという。

「日本の死者の多くは院内感染と高齢者施設で発生した患者です。本来はやむを得ず制限が必要な“ネガティブ・リスト”をつくるべきなのに、今回はすべてを止めてしまった。
必要なのはリスクの高いコミュニティーを見つけること、そして別のコミュニティーとのハブになる人を抑え込むことです」

 病院内や夜の飲食店など、感染リスクが高い場所はかなり明らかになっている。抗体検査を広く行うことでそれをさらに明確化し、そこに対して制限をかけることで事足りるはずだと指摘する。

 緊急事態宣言は必要な措置だったのか、不要だったのか。改善すべき点はあったのか。出口戦略は適切だったのか。本格的な第2派到来が懸念されるのは今秋だ。検証の時間は、ある

https://dot.asahi.com/aera/2020052500012.html?page=2

関連スレ
【医療崩壊した韓国】野党推薦・上昌広「韓国の対応は、あらゆる国にとって良い手本となる」★3
http://asahi.5ch.net/test/read.cgi/newsplus/1584161694/

【イタリアすごい】上昌広「なぜイタリアと日本はこんなに違うのか。私は経験の差だと思う」現実→イタリアのコロナ死者数は日本の52倍★7
http://asahi.5ch.net/test/read.cgi/newsplus/1583752210/

【コロナウイルス】上昌広氏「『隠れコロナ患者』も現時点で100万人程度いたとしてもおかしくない」★2  
http://asahi.5ch.net/test/read.cgi/newsplus/1583031605/

【朗報】上昌広が激怒、ドライブスルー検査しない厚労省に「とうとう狂ってしまいました。ここまでしてPCRをやりたくないんですね」★5
http://asahi.5ch.net/test/read.cgi/newsplus/1584361828/

6: 不要不急の名無しさん 2020/05/27(水) 10:21:56.13 ID:0eu9JrJw0
>>1
こんな胡散臭いヤツを有り難がって重用してた立憲
マジクソ過ぎる

こいつ、イタリアを見習え!とか言ってただろ

193: 不要不急の名無しさん 2020/05/27(水) 10:32:15.30 ID:SHAJJ1gN0
>>6
もし自民党じゃなくて立憲が与党だったら、PCR検査しまくりと緊急事態宣言がなく、医療崩壊まったなしで1万人くらい亡くなってたかもな

28: 不要不急の名無しさん 2020/05/27(水) 10:23:19.10 ID:VS8eUPBD0
>>1
此奴に発言の機会を与えるな。

31: 不要不急の名無しさん 2020/05/27(水) 10:23:27.79 ID:PupYuaDI0
>>1
上様のいうことを信じるやつもうゼロだろ?
漏れてたやつがいた可能性は否定せんけど、
不明死じゃなくてCTでわかるんだから、肺炎死から探るべき
あと超過死亡数はパーセンテージによるので、例年の変動幅なら誤差
有意な差かどうかはまだわかんない

わかるのは一つ。
上様は当たらない、常に。

186: 不要不急の名無しさん 2020/05/27(水) 10:31:47.91 ID:RbMf1bh90
>>1
それはない

207: 不要不急の名無しさん 2020/05/27(水) 10:32:40.41 ID:p5exn8mm0
>>1
医療ガバナンス研究所は宗教団体です

270: 不要不急の名無しさん 2020/05/27(水) 10:35:44.76 ID:88pF4zL/0
>>1
日本で言うところの「後出しじゃんけん」

中国では
「事後諸葛亮」
「後出し孔明」
と言います。
覚えておくと便利ですよ?

292: 不要不急の名無しさん 2020/05/27(水) 10:36:58.44 ID:msJJEPKQ0
>>1
落ち着くと必ず出てくるな
こういう頭の悪すぎる人

357: 不要不急の名無しさん 2020/05/27(水) 10:40:01.70 ID:xFS9mTwZ0
>>1
メディアって、こういうやつに発言させるのはいいけど、前の発言との矛盾を指摘しないのは無責任だろ

385: 不要不急の名無しさん 2020/05/27(水) 10:41:52.08 ID:7o9vfPq80
>>1
後医は名医って言葉知ってるかね

9: 不要不急の名無しさん 2020/05/27(水) 10:21:58.33 ID:LvbzUN/M0
あー、こいつか

10: 不要不急の名無しさん 2020/05/27(水) 10:22:00.47 ID:w6EEZQ7h0
GWがあったから緊急事態宣言出してよかったよ。
この人単なる逆張りおやじ。

13: 不要不急の名無しさん 2020/05/27(水) 10:22:11.16 ID:wlQLHHeN0
完全な結果論
そんなもん猿でも玉川でも言えるわ

19: 不要不急の名無しさん 2020/05/27(水) 10:22:37.10 ID:0eu9JrJw0
>>13
猿に失礼だろ

18: 不要不急の名無しさん 2020/05/27(水) 10:22:33.38 ID:pCRY+jgi0
今更言われてもよ

23: 不要不急の名無しさん 2020/05/27(水) 10:22:55.66 ID:w6BHyRMK0
後だしじゃんけん 最低だな  
2月3月の自分の発言を振り返ってみろ

24: 不要不急の名無しさん 2020/05/27(水) 10:22:57.58 ID:y2yTBZXX0
後からならなんとでも言えるね

37: 不要不急の名無しさん 2020/05/27(水) 10:23:48.86 ID:C1j3CsUO0
エビデンスは?

39: 不要不急の名無しさん 2020/05/27(水) 10:23:53.80 ID:nOqBoiEq0
それは無いやろ
抗体持ってないし

43: 不要不急の名無しさん 2020/05/27(水) 10:23:59.91 ID:zIWArBoj0
宝くじを買う必要は無かった

その前に、外れが確定していた可能性がある

46: 不要不急の名無しさん 2020/05/27(水) 10:24:03.21 ID:2FyYeX550
10年前から尾身先生を叩きまくっててワロwww
no title

91: 不要不急の名無しさん 2020/05/27(水) 10:26:29.54 ID:0eu9JrJw0
>>46
尾身先生が居なければジャパンミラクルなんて言われてなかった。
ほんと政府の中枢にいたのが尾身先生でよかった。

上はほんと疫病神みたいなヤツなんだな。
立憲が政権持ってたらこいつが対策してたかもしれないと思うとゾッとするわ。

76: 不要不急の名無しさん 2020/05/27(水) 10:25:43.95 ID:KJZwvSfg0
この後感染者が激増したら全面自粛を止めたせいだってピーピー騒ぐんだろ、どうせ。

84: 不要不急の名無しさん 2020/05/27(水) 10:26:05.27 ID:bjIEop9b0
後だしじゃんけんなのに負けてる

そのくらいどうでもいい発言

102: 不要不急の名無しさん 2020/05/27(水) 10:27:07.10 ID:XrdrNcCI0
こんな記事で金貰える人 なりたくはないがうらやますい

127: 不要不急の名無しさん 2020/05/27(水) 10:28:40.59 ID:9ZGgqZTJ0
経験の差のイタリアはどえお考えですか?

130: 不要不急の名無しさん 2020/05/27(水) 10:28:50.06 ID:M28LMg5B0
馬鹿でも内科医になれることを証明したな。
全国の医師志望の学生は、がんばれ!

元スレ:https://asahi.5ch.net/test/read.cgi/newsplus/1590542433/

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